Skip to main content

In Biotech We Trust

Given the recovery of biotech stocks over last few weeks, investors can almost say "In Biotech We Trust". Monday started with big biotech buyout with Roche buying Intermune (ITMN) for $8.5 Billion. This is a deal for company which has less than $150M yearly revenue. But hey, when did those things matter when you have a promising billion $ drug waiting for FDA approval which could come as early as Nov 2014. One could have easily made some dough by buying ITMN stock when rumors started about 2 weeks back that some European drug giants are interested in this company. Luckily I have been studying, tracking and investing in this company since mid-30s.
This deal gave a major boost to other bio-techs which could be next buyout candidates. Here are some of my predictions for either buyout or positive response from FDA. Since these stocks are extremely volatile, I won't recommend them to anyone AT ALL since one could lose all their investments.

The reason I am even writing this blog on bio-techs is only because of my personal interest/study and putting out potential winners publicly. It is like testing my own bio-tech stock picking skills. The price mentioned is possible entry point when markets cool down

  • ACHN - below $8
  • ARWR - below $10
  • FOLD - below $6
  • ISIS - below $30
  • JAZZ - below $140
  • ICPT - below $220
  • CLVS - below $37
  • INSM - below $13
  • SRPT - below $20
  • RNA - below $8
  • TKMR - below $15
  • CLDX - below $12
Personally I feel that there are more than 50% chance that many of these companies would be successful in clinical trials and could be bought over (JAZZ may be due to tax inversion theme). There are some big stocks like GILD, REGN etc which also would do very well (20% gain). After all they are charging more than year's salary (in Bay area) per patient for some of their drugs ($84000 for Sovaldi - $1000 per pill)
Americans like their tech - whether it's high-tech or bio-tech or green-tech. And hence they are willing to fund these companies. That's why America is leader in all of these fields.
Have a great weekend!
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more