Skip to main content

In Biotech We Trust

Given the recovery of biotech stocks over last few weeks, investors can almost say "In Biotech We Trust". Monday started with big biotech buyout with Roche buying Intermune (ITMN) for $8.5 Billion. This is a deal for company which has less than $150M yearly revenue. But hey, when did those things matter when you have a promising billion $ drug waiting for FDA approval which could come as early as Nov 2014. One could have easily made some dough by buying ITMN stock when rumors started about 2 weeks back that some European drug giants are interested in this company. Luckily I have been studying, tracking and investing in this company since mid-30s.
This deal gave a major boost to other bio-techs which could be next buyout candidates. Here are some of my predictions for either buyout or positive response from FDA. Since these stocks are extremely volatile, I won't recommend them to anyone AT ALL since one could lose all their investments.

The reason I am even writing this blog on bio-techs is only because of my personal interest/study and putting out potential winners publicly. It is like testing my own bio-tech stock picking skills. The price mentioned is possible entry point when markets cool down

  • ACHN - below $8
  • ARWR - below $10
  • FOLD - below $6
  • ISIS - below $30
  • JAZZ - below $140
  • ICPT - below $220
  • CLVS - below $37
  • INSM - below $13
  • SRPT - below $20
  • RNA - below $8
  • TKMR - below $15
  • CLDX - below $12
Personally I feel that there are more than 50% chance that many of these companies would be successful in clinical trials and could be bought over (JAZZ may be due to tax inversion theme). There are some big stocks like GILD, REGN etc which also would do very well (20% gain). After all they are charging more than year's salary (in Bay area) per patient for some of their drugs ($84000 for Sovaldi - $1000 per pill)
Americans like their tech - whether it's high-tech or bio-tech or green-tech. And hence they are willing to fund these companies. That's why America is leader in all of these fields.
Have a great weekend!
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Rockets, Relics & Roaring Markets: The $4 Trillion Crossroads of 1927 and 1999

Happy (almost) Summer! After watching Kevin Warsh get sworn in at a White House ceremony two days ago, tracking three S-1 filings that could collectively hoover up more capital than every U.S. IPO since 2022 combined, and watching 26-year-old stock charts finally break to new highs — it felt like the right moment to ask the uncomfortable question out loud. Are we at a party that ends gracefully, or one that ends with the furniture on fire? The market is simultaneously flashing the neon signs of 1999  and  the orchestral excess of 1927. Most commentators reach for the dot-com playbook. I think the original Roaring Twenties is the better map. Here's why... Assembly Lines to AI Clusters Ford's River Rouge complex was the largest industrial facility on earth in the 1920s — raw iron in one end, a Model T out the other. Steel, rubber, and oil became the picks-and-shovels of the age. GE and Westinghouse were electrifying factories and homes. The infrastructure buildout  was ...
Post a Comment
Read more