Skip to main content

Thank You Mr. Bernanke!

It is very rare to say public thanks to a public official But given what Mr. Bernanke has done as Fed chairman over last 5 years during financial crisis and almost single-handedly saved America (and to some extent) world economy from another depression, he deserves Thanks. Mr. Bernanke retired on Jan 31 and effective today he has become private citizen. I am sure he is proud of his achievements of saving world economy and most importantly saving millions and millions of jobs when politicians in Washington were fighting each other and doing nothing. We should consider ourselves fortunate that we had a student of depression era has Fed Chairman and was daring enough to follow un-conventional (and many times controversial) policies to prevent America from falling into another depression. For that Thank you and wish you best of luck Mr. Bernanke!
This weekend is SuperBowl weekend. While we are little dis-appointed that 49ers did not make into SuperBowl, it's always fun to watch the Big Game and interesting advertisements which companies are paying nearly $4 Million per 30 second slot. This is 2nd time in last 20 years when teams with best record (13-3). So here are my predictions for game and next week:

  • The game would be close. Broncos would win SuperBowl
  • Next week Twitter is going to announce it's first ever results as public company. Given the lessons they learned from FB IPO and post-IPO, Twitter's results would be outstanding (after ll FB had outstanding quarter - letter late than never)
  • Emerging markets would continue to struggle but US markets would find footing with DOW around 15500 and then slowly and steadily resume it's upward march
Have a great game party time.

/Shyam


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...