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Sell in May and Enjoy Summer!

With stock markets at all time high and month of May approaching, it is time to follow time-tested advise of "Sell in May and walk away". While there may be some more gains in weeks away, historically we are entering into six-moth period where avg stock market returns have been slightly negative (compared to this we are just ending Oct-Apr period where returns have been good historically). If we just go with pure financial logic, this does not make sense. But after all markets are more influenced by psychology (than formulas). Yesterday only in Haas Reunion Conference @Berkeley, I attended a sessions on "Behavioral Finance" by Pro Greg La Blanc. Basic theme was that markets are influenced more by what people think of what others would do than by fundamentals (at least in short-term). This is why we see Apple trading at less than 10 times earnings while Amazon trading at close to 100 times earnings because people believe that Apple story is over while there is still some untold chapters in Amazon story. Apple is returning 100 Billion $ to investors in next 2 years which is almost same amount at total Amazon valuation. So I have to pick one among these two companies (for investing), I would pick Apple over Amazon anytime.
In general. what strategy one should follow. Here are three options:
  1. Sell all your holdings, stay in cash, Enjoy your summer and reinvest in markets in Oct
  2. Do nothing: Hold all your holdings and ride out the ups-and-downs of market during next six months
  3. Stay invested and generate some cash by selling "Covered Calls" against stocks in your portfolio. While doing this, also buy some downside protection by buying "puts" or VXX
Personally I am inclined to go with option #3. 
IPL cricket season in full-force. As in past years, CSF is so consistent in their winning, it's almost like Team Australia in first decade of this century. I won't be surprised if CSK wins IPL 6 final again.
That's all for now. Have a great summer movie season

/Shyam

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