Skip to main content

SuperBowl: Harbaugh Bowl?

This weekend is best of NFL sports when two teams who would be playing Superbowl in two weeks would be decided. This time, 4 best teams have come to championship games - each one of them could be Superbowl winner. Last Saturday was great Saturday for Harbaugh brothers whose teams (Jim Harbaugh - 49ers and John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens) won their places against tough teams. Question is - would this year's Superbowl be Harbaugh Bowl. There is real chance that this could happen (if luck plays some role in helping both these teams). Current favorites for Superbowl matchup is between SanFranciso 49ers and New England Patriots. But if luck plays some role, Baltimore Ravens could sneak up a victory similar to what they did against Denver Broncos last week.
I am rooting for Colin Kapernick's 49ers to win tomorrow against Falcons and then eventually Superbowl. And given 80% co-relation between stock market returns and Superbowl win by original AFL team, any team except Patriots win would be good for 2013 returns on Stock Markets (source: Article from WSJ).
In general this year would be good for stock market returns with DOW crossing 14000 and S&P crossing 1500 before Apr. After that it could bring some turbulence to the markets but by year end, DOW could close at all time high (over 14000) and S&P finally closing above its all time high (1560).  After all first year returns on 2nd term for recent Presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan) have been good years for stock markets.
I am bullish on housing and banking sectors. In particular I like BAC, MS, MTG and NCT in these sectors. Each of these could provide 10-15% returns (counting dividends) over 12 months. In technology sectors, Nokia sounds interesting since it could be turning around in its handset business and could turn out to be good long-term bet. If they have some good handsets and win back some market share, it could return 30% over next 12 months. Could it become Apple of 1997 would be another question. I doubt any company could be Apple (even Apple could not repeat its own performance in years ahead).
That's all for now. Have a great football and Presidential Inauguration Weekend.
President Obama - Wish you best of luck for your 2nd term. Make this term historic so history could compare you with other great presidents.
/Shyam


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

The "i" factors are back again!

Happy Earth Day! In following Stotra, we remember Mother Earth every morning before touching feet to the ground. समुद्रवसने   देवि   पर्वतस्तनमण्डले   । विष्णुपत्नि   नमस्तुभ्यं   पादस्पर्शं   क्षमस्वमे   ॥ Samudra-Vasane Devi Parvata-Stana-Mannddale | Vissnnu-Patni Namas-Tubhyam Paada-Sparsham Kssamasva-Me || Meaning : 1:  (Oh Mother Earth) O  Devi , You Who have the  Ocean  as Your  Garments , and  Mountains  as Your  Bosom , 2:  O  Consort  of  Lord Vishnu ,  Salutations  to  You ; Please  Forgive my Touch  of the  Feet  (on Earth, which is Your Holy Body). (source: Green Message site) So let's make sure that we honor Earth every day and preserve her for millions of years..After all we have only ONE! It has been six weeks since I wrote about markets. During that time, markets reached all time highs (almost touching 5300) and down by 5% from those levels. W...