Finally Greece elections are over and pro-bailout parties winning slight majority over leftists should assure markets that Greece would remain in Euro and contagion to other PIIGS countries can be contained - at least for now! These elections could have profound impact on Greece, Europe and world economies and hence world markets. Lehman type moment has been avoided for now. Could this be a repeat of 2008 when Bear Sterns was rescued in March 2008 just to land into Lehman/AIG situation 6 months later in Sept 2008. Only time would tell. Hope European policy makers learn something from US policymakers actions back in 2008/2009 and take decisive actions to get ahead of crisis and provide a bazooka instead of patch-work rescue. ECB and Northern European countries has fire-power. What they need is will to use them. Whether Germans like it or not, they should start thinking of "United States of Europe" and start helping broke southern countries. Merkel may be most powerful person right now due to her refusal to budge on some bold actions but she needs to use that power wisely and save Europe and world from another economic crisis. By electing pro-bailout parties, Greeks have acted sensibly and now its Markel's turn to return the favor by loosening up on austerity demands!
What does all this mean to world stock markets? Looks like markets got the potential outcome right in last 2 weeks since they have been up significantly (DOW jumped over 500 points in last 2 weeks). Next week DOW would jump another 200-300 points and may cross 13000 again. With Fed meeting this week where extension to "operation twist" or QEIII would be discussed again. So in short, the dangerous clouds seem to have passed and coast seems to be clear for next 3-4 weeks. I won't be surprised if DOW starts inching towards recent highs reached on May 1 before end of July. When we get into Aug/Sept, again markets would become sensitive to US elections and coming fiscal cliff in 2013.
Facebook stock seems to have turned the direction. Now everyone would be watching its first results after IPO. ZNGA has reached all time lows last week and turned the direction. In all, these are interesting but very volatile stocks. I still prefer dividend paying stocks like AGNC, NLY, ARR and energy stocks like NBR ($13), SD and ETF like XLE or ERX (below $35). In pharma sectors, looks out for weight-loss area. Two companies ARNA and VVUS could have big movements since FDA plans to approve and reject their applications for weight-loss pills. They got favorable rulings from advisory committee and markets are expecting approval for their applications. If that happen, VVUS would go from $25 to $35 and ARNA would go from $8 to over $10. If their applications get rejected, these would be down by at least 50%. So be careful before investing.
Happy Father's Day!
/Shyam
What does all this mean to world stock markets? Looks like markets got the potential outcome right in last 2 weeks since they have been up significantly (DOW jumped over 500 points in last 2 weeks). Next week DOW would jump another 200-300 points and may cross 13000 again. With Fed meeting this week where extension to "operation twist" or QEIII would be discussed again. So in short, the dangerous clouds seem to have passed and coast seems to be clear for next 3-4 weeks. I won't be surprised if DOW starts inching towards recent highs reached on May 1 before end of July. When we get into Aug/Sept, again markets would become sensitive to US elections and coming fiscal cliff in 2013.
Facebook stock seems to have turned the direction. Now everyone would be watching its first results after IPO. ZNGA has reached all time lows last week and turned the direction. In all, these are interesting but very volatile stocks. I still prefer dividend paying stocks like AGNC, NLY, ARR and energy stocks like NBR ($13), SD and ETF like XLE or ERX (below $35). In pharma sectors, looks out for weight-loss area. Two companies ARNA and VVUS could have big movements since FDA plans to approve and reject their applications for weight-loss pills. They got favorable rulings from advisory committee and markets are expecting approval for their applications. If that happen, VVUS would go from $25 to $35 and ARNA would go from $8 to over $10. If their applications get rejected, these would be down by at least 50%. So be careful before investing.
Happy Father's Day!
/Shyam
Comments