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Beware the Ides of March!

Since the movie "Ides of March" came, I was intrigued by word "Ides". This is when my son Yash explained meaning of Ides to me and what it meant in context of "Ides of March". In brief, a seer had foreseen that Julius Caesar would be harmed not later than the Ides of March and he warned him about this as "beware the Ides of March". And as we know from history, this is when he got stabbed 23 times in Roman Senate by group of conspirators.


So how does this fits in today's investing world? Since Oct, stock markets have been on a tear ignoring so much uncertainty and geo-political risks around world. Last week, Dow crossed 1300 twice (but failed to close above it), S&P is at 4 year high, Nasdaq is as 11 year high. This is happening despite following:
  • European debt mess
  • Tensions around Iran's nuclear program - this week's economist article details risks around this. Some are predicting around 50% chance that Israel would take preemptive steps between Apr to Jun to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear state
  • Political drama in Washington preventing any real work happening in US congress
  • Faltering Arab spring - tensions around Syria
  • Elections in France, Russia
  • Slowing economic growth in China
At some point, people are going to start paying attention to all these and start pressing exit button on their investments. When that happens, there is real risk of DOW going back to 12000 and S&P going below 1250. Another sign of this - articles in economic magazines about DOW crossing 18000. This is sure-shot sign that there is another bubble getting formed!
Romney should also be "beware the Ides of March" since Santorum surge could very easily rob Romney's chance of becoming Republican Presidential nominee - Super Tuesday in March just got very exciting!
Today is Oscar night. We saw Hugo yesterday. It was very good movie. This year there are so many good moves who deserve to win. But here are my predictions:
  • Best Movie - The Artist
  • Best Actress - Meryl Streep (Iron Lady)
  • Best Acton - George Clooney (The Descendants)
  • Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) or Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Enjoy Oscar evening.
/Shyam

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