Skip to main content

Beware the Ides of March!

Since the movie "Ides of March" came, I was intrigued by word "Ides". This is when my son Yash explained meaning of Ides to me and what it meant in context of "Ides of March". In brief, a seer had foreseen that Julius Caesar would be harmed not later than the Ides of March and he warned him about this as "beware the Ides of March". And as we know from history, this is when he got stabbed 23 times in Roman Senate by group of conspirators.


So how does this fits in today's investing world? Since Oct, stock markets have been on a tear ignoring so much uncertainty and geo-political risks around world. Last week, Dow crossed 1300 twice (but failed to close above it), S&P is at 4 year high, Nasdaq is as 11 year high. This is happening despite following:
  • European debt mess
  • Tensions around Iran's nuclear program - this week's economist article details risks around this. Some are predicting around 50% chance that Israel would take preemptive steps between Apr to Jun to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear state
  • Political drama in Washington preventing any real work happening in US congress
  • Faltering Arab spring - tensions around Syria
  • Elections in France, Russia
  • Slowing economic growth in China
At some point, people are going to start paying attention to all these and start pressing exit button on their investments. When that happens, there is real risk of DOW going back to 12000 and S&P going below 1250. Another sign of this - articles in economic magazines about DOW crossing 18000. This is sure-shot sign that there is another bubble getting formed!
Romney should also be "beware the Ides of March" since Santorum surge could very easily rob Romney's chance of becoming Republican Presidential nominee - Super Tuesday in March just got very exciting!
Today is Oscar night. We saw Hugo yesterday. It was very good movie. This year there are so many good moves who deserve to win. But here are my predictions:
  • Best Movie - The Artist
  • Best Actress - Meryl Streep (Iron Lady)
  • Best Acton - George Clooney (The Descendants)
  • Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) or Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Enjoy Oscar evening.
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...
Post a Comment
Read more