Skip to main content

2011: Arab Spring and European "Fall"!

Year 2011 is coming to an end. What started as promising year both on economic front as well as Geo-political front with Arab Spring is ending with recession clouds and European "Fall". What a mess our elected politicians have made in managing affairs of their countries. Everywhere you look, politicians are failing in delivering what they were supposed to deliver.

  • Enough said about European circus - every few weeks they meet, make lot of promises after long meetings and then go their own ways without implementing these promises. Already 4 countries have changed their Prime Minister(s) (Ireland, Spain, Italy and Greece). Next round could be France
  • US is in gridlock which is likely going to be intensified in election year 2012. So nothing would happen on economic front other than political posturing. Obama started as great promise but coming up way short than what his Presidency could have been.
  • India is stuck in non-stop corruption/Lokpal/Anna's fast. This has started to take tool on economy with Rs touching all time low of 54 against $ and growth coming down to possibly below 5%
  • Chinese are preparing for their leadership change in 2012 (it happens every decade) and trying to make sure that Arab spring does not land on their shores by increasing censorship on Internet
So anywhere you look, dark clouds are looming in 2012. So what should an average investor do? My recommendation is to stay in cash for next few weeks and invest in dividend paying blue-chips. I am short-listing few names which I will publish as we start 2012. Till then enjoy your Christmas shopping (US economy needs you to do more shopping:-) and holidays!

/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...
Post a Comment
Read more