Skip to main content

Japan's "9/11" and "Katrina" Moment !

For last one week Japan has been fighting with three calamities - biggest earthquake in recorded history followed by tsunami followed by nuclear plant possible meltdown. Japanese people have shown a great resolve, calm and solidarity with each other in these difficult times. We all world citizens are with Japanese people in their difficult times. While Japanese people are showing great resolve, Japanese politicians and Tokyo Electric Company are failing them by not able to get control on nuclear reactor fiasco. This is typical due to slow response to crisis by government and corporates. I hope they do not repeat the mistakes of real estate bubble crisis from which Japan is still recovering after 2 decades. Japan's government had a chance to rise to the occasion and handle their "Katrina" and "9/11" moments. The response till now seems to be below expectations.

This triple whammy along with troubles in Middle-East and European debt was too much for markets to handle and as expected we saw one of the most volatile week in markets exactly after 2 years when it reached "devil's low (S&P at 666)". Thanks to Fed's comments and co-ordinated response by G-7 countries to halt yen's rise, markets started coming back to normalcy. Q1 end is 2 weeks away and everyone would be watching Q1 results closely in Apr. So expect to continue this volatility all during Mar, Apr and May.

After second stress tests, Fed has allowed banks to start raising dividends. This means that banks are back in action and could be good stocks for next 12-24 months. Here are some recommendations:

  • BAC at $14
  • FAS at $28 (extremely aggressive so be careful)
  • WFC at $30
  • HBAN at $6.6

Cricket World Cup is entering into knockout phase. With Pakistan beating Australia, knockout phase has become interesting and most likely India would face Australia in quarter-finals. We would have preferred to face any other team but Australia in quarter-finals. But if India wants to win WC, it needs to start showing resolve that they can beat any team including Australia.

Good luck India for cricket WC knockout phase !

/Shyam


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...
Post a Comment
Read more