Skip to main content

Let the hunt begin !

As predicted in last week's blog, 3PAR saga ended with HP winning the bid at $33. However in the race to win 3PAR at any cost, it ended up paying at least half a billion more. Only time would tell if HP was winner or loser in this race. Potash saga would continue for few more weeks - just read news that Chinese state companies (Sinochem etc) may be preparing a counter-bid for Potash. It would be interesting given price tag would be over $40 Billion

So who is next "hunted" in the hunt which has started in last few weeks. Here are some of my predictions - these companies could get "hunted" and get acquired in next 2 years (CP: Current Price, PTP: Potential takeover price)


  1. Blue Coat - BCSI (CP: $21.50 ; PTP: over $30)
  2. Compellent - CML (CP: $18.50 ; PTP: over $25)
  3. Brocade - BRCD (CP: $5.60 ; PTP: Over $8)
  4. Symantec - SYMC (CP: $14 ; PTP: Over $19)
  5. Sprint Nextel - S (CP: $4 ; PTP: Over $6)
  6. Regions Financial - RF (CP: $7 PTP: Over $10)
  7. Synovus Financial - SNV (CP: $2.3 PTP: Over $4)
  8. Huntsman Corporation - HUN (CP: $9.5 PTP: Over $15)
  9. SandRidge Energy - SD (CP: $4.3 ; PTP: Over $7)
Here are couple of private equity potential targets:
  1. Kodak - EK (CP: $4 ; PTP: $7) due to its patents in digital imaging area
  2. RRI Energy - RRI (CP: $3.7 ; PTP: $5.5) due to its cash flow. Would be similar to DYN deal
Overall markets got some direction last week due to good news on PMI and employment front. Lot of folks are wondering why markets went up even if unemployment inched higher at 9.6%.  The key point they missed is private companies have created over 235000 in last three months. While this is just barely enough to keep a lid on unemployment, it's nonetheless positive signal. US needs about half a million jobs created every month to get real momentum. It does not look likely at least for next few months due to complete halt in Washington due to election paralysis. Mr. President really needs to get momentum going on new ways to stimulus economy and even extend Bush tax cuts by couple of years to get republicans on board.

That's all for now. Have a great week !

/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more