Skip to main content

Congratulations Spain and Paul the Octopus!

Congratulations Spain for winning the Soccer World Cup first time and becoming 8th nation to join exclusive club of world cup winners. Congratulations Paul the Octopus for correctly predicting all results of all Germany matches and outcome of semi-finals and final. It's really amazing to see 100% record on predictions. In all, it was a great world cup and I enjoyed watching these matches with friends (even though India was not playing and US was out before quarter-finals). I was rooting for Spain for two reasons - they were really playing excellent and other reason is Spain as country needed this win to boost their confidence and along with it's confidence. Spanish economy which is 3rd biggest in Europe is important for European as well as World economy !

Now that world cup is over, I am looking forward to earnings season which should start from tomorrow with Alcoa announcing earnings on Monday after market close. Markets are at crucial juncture and looking for direction. It has come down nearly 10% from its high in Apr 2010 and up by 5% from its low reached last week. There are conflicting reports about double-dip or growth. That's why this earnings season and especially forecasts would be very important. I need to do some study about co-relation between "post-earning market reaction to Alcoa stock price" and "market direction for quarter". I have a gut-feel that they have direct co-relation. As does Alcoa stock price goes after earnings, so does the market. I don't have statistical model to prove it (yet!) but here is my "gut-feel" reasoning: Alcoa is biggest aluminum producer in world, aluminum is industrial commodity and has co-relation with growth prospects of world economy, stock market depends on growth prospects of economy. Hence when market reaction to Alcoa stock price after earnings could potentially signal how markets are going to go for next few weeks. Let's see what happens on Tuesday after Alcoa earnings ! For now, I am recommending Alcoa (AA) at $10.50 to $10.75 for potential gain of over 20-30% in next 12 months.

Have a great week ahead !

/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more