Skip to main content

Return to normal in June !

I am glad that May is over. It is one of the most terrible month personally for me. My dear father passed away at age 69 due to post-surgery complications on May 16. If you are around Pune and had to go to hospital, AVOID Ruby Hall at all cost. It is one of the worst hospital in terms on post-operative care. I wish someone had warned me about this before my father's bypass surgery.

Please spread the word about avoiding Ruby Hall, Pune at all costs for any treatment !

It has been 2 weeks since my father passed away - myself and my family are coming to terms and returning to our normal lives. Life would never be same when you lose someone dear to your heart and has been an inspiring figure all your life. But life must go on !

I am so looking forward to forgetting this dreadful month of May 2010. Coincidentally it is worst May month since 1940 with 8% monthly loss. I never thought my prediction about "Sell in May and walk away" would be so right on target. I wish it did not !

Looking forward, I am expecting markets to return to normal in June to get ready for second quarter results. Now that Dow has dipped below 10000 twice, it has got much needed correction. It sets a good stage for recovery rally and on its upward march towards 11000. Markets should recover 2-4% in month of Jun which would take DOW above 10500.
By year end, DOW would end above 11000 and possibly closer to 11500 which would be about 10% from current levels. In this correction, there are so many stocks below my recommended price and could offer 50% return in next 9-12 months. Here are some recommendations:
  • PMI ($4), RDN ($10), MBI ($7)
  • SFI ($6), SFI-PD ($15)
  • KEY ($8), SNV ($3), RF ($7.5)
  • XTXI ($7), AHD ($4.4), MMR ($10)
  • FAS ($22), DRN ($38), TYH ($28), ERX ($27)
  • CNO ($5.5), PNX ($2.6)
The price in bracket is recommended buy price. You should consider buying around recommended price and sell after 50% return in next 9-12 months. Till you sell, you can cash out on volatility by selling call options every month.

/Shyam


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more