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China, Greece and American Politics - Wall of Worries ?

This week was one of those weeks when investors start paying attention to volatility and come out of their complacency which they got used to in last few months. When all major indices go down by nearly 5%, one has to wake up and pay attention. This week, every day DOW had century movements (1 up, 3 down) - last two were double-century on down-side.

There are quite a few reasons markets behaved the way it behaved. Let's look at them:
  • China is putting brakes on its rampant credit growth and associated speculation to prevent economy from going out of hand. And now a days when that happens, whole world markets shiver !
  • Continuing worries of Greece being on verge of default
  • And as major shock, democrats losing Mass senate seat and hence putting Obama's overall policies (including health care bill) in tatters. Now that his major initiative in trouble, Obama is trying to rally his support by attacking wall street and bankers - some of it is justified and some of it is just politics - but he has to go on offensive if he wants to NOT lose both houses in Nov elections
  • News about Mr Bernanke's nomination in trouble did not help markets. This is again due to politics since for many democratic senators who are facing mid-term elections, it is easy call to punish anyone even closely related to 2008 crisis. In fact if Bernanke is not confirmed, markets would go down below 10000 - hope we can sell some stocks before that happens.
So what should investors do:
  • I would recommend stay put if you are already invested - get some cash out by selling covered calls on your holdings
  • If you have "dry-powder (aka cash), wait for market turmoil to play out and when right opportunity comes:
  • Buy preferred shares of companies which are most likely survive (IDG, DDR-PG, SFI-PD, CBC-PB)
  • Invest in oil and gas MLPs (EXXI, AHD, XTXI)
  • Invest in regional banks (RF, KEY, SNV)
  • Watch the politics drama unfolding during this election year
Have a great weekend !

/Shyam

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