Skip to main content

Markets: "trick" or "treat" ?

Last week was a pivotal week for markets and left investors wondering - was it a scary "trick" or opportunity "treat" ?

As expected and predicted GDP grew by 3.5%. At surface investors celebrated the news on Thursday with nearly 200% point gain. But on Friday, they had second thoughts after parsing the numbers and realizing that actual GDP growth excluding "cash for clunkers sales" and "inventory buildup", was below 1%. Now that these are one time events over, investors are looking forward and wondering from where growth would come ? Hence the Friday sell-off. Despite last 2 week sell-off, markets are still up by more than 50%. So there is still some time to cash-out gains and wait for opportunity in another sell-off which may take markets below 9500. However I am still sticking with my prediction of DOW near or above 10000 by year end.

Let's look at stock recommendation for the week:

Company: Genworth Financial
Symbol: GNW
Buy price: $10 to $10.50
Target price in 12 months: $ 15
Company background:
Genworth Financial, Inc. (Genworth) is a financial security company dedicated to providing insurance, investment and financial solutions to approximately 15 million customers, with a presence in approximately 25 countries.

Reasons for selection:
  • Annual revenues: $10 B
  • Market Cap: < $5 B
  • Book Value: $25. Trading at 40% of BV. Normally insurance companies trade 1 times book value
  • Recently raised $600 M at $11.70 per share. It is trading below that
  • Worst is behind it as seen from Q3 results where it beat estimates handily
  • This stock could rise similar to LNC and HIG. I won't be surprised if it goes closer to $20 in 2010
Hope all of you had good "trick or treat".

Have a great week ahead !

/Shyam

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

The "i" factors are back again!

Happy Earth Day! In following Stotra, we remember Mother Earth every morning before touching feet to the ground. समुद्रवसने   देवि   पर्वतस्तनमण्डले   । विष्णुपत्नि   नमस्तुभ्यं   पादस्पर्शं   क्षमस्वमे   ॥ Samudra-Vasane Devi Parvata-Stana-Mannddale | Vissnnu-Patni Namas-Tubhyam Paada-Sparsham Kssamasva-Me || Meaning : 1:  (Oh Mother Earth) O  Devi , You Who have the  Ocean  as Your  Garments , and  Mountains  as Your  Bosom , 2:  O  Consort  of  Lord Vishnu ,  Salutations  to  You ; Please  Forgive my Touch  of the  Feet  (on Earth, which is Your Holy Body). (source: Green Message site) So let's make sure that we honor Earth every day and preserve her for millions of years..After all we have only ONE! It has been six weeks since I wrote about markets. During that time, markets reached all time highs (almost touching 5300) and down by 5% from those levels. W...