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Sept 2008 "Panic" Anniversary !

Tomorrow when America would be celebrating late labor day weekend, there is another anniversary financial world would be watching - Government takeover of Freddie and Fannie which started the events which we can call as "Panic of 2008"

Let's review some of the highlights:
  • Vanishing acts by many financials stalwarts like Lehman, Merril, Wachovia and so on
  • Major government stakes in many other stalwarts like Citibank, Bank of America, RBS, Wells Fargo and so on
  • Generational low on S&P of 666 and an opportunity for generational long-term investment - I don't think we will see such a low again for another 5-10 years
  • One of the best 6 month return on S&P since 1938
  • Return of financials with generational returns on big banks like C (from 1 to 5), BAC (from 3 to 18), GS (from 50 to 170), AXP (from 9 to 30) and so on
What lies ahead ?
  • Mar 2009 could be like 1982 which started a secular bull market. It is possible that we could see another bull market started in Mar 2009 potentially taking DOW and S&P past their all time highs in next 5-10 years - that means DOW crossing 15000 by 2015. When Obama took oath, DOW was hovering around 8000. It is possible that by end of Obama first term, DOW could be around 12000 and by end of second term, it would have crossed 15000 !
  • Financials would return to "new normal" - boring world of banking without much of excesses seen during 2003-2007. This could be good for economy as banks would be on much better footing and provide steady returns. Forget about the kind of returns we saw on these companies in last 6 months. It would take 6 years to even match those returns !
  • China and India would continue to grow at 6-10% over next few years doubling their economies in 5-10 years and providing growth to world economy.
  • Real estate would come back to life with long-term returns of 1-2% on real estate prices. However REITs investing in these real estate would provide a steady return of 6-8% over next few years
  • Oil would hover around $50-80 over long run and Natural Gas (which is my current favorite commodity) would hover around $2.50 to $6. Investing in oil and gas would be good long-term investment no matter what.
Let's look at this week's pick:

Company: Chesapeake Energy Corporation
Symbol: CHK
Recommended Buy price: $ 20
Target price in 12 months: $ 30
Background:
Chesapeake Energy Corporation is a producer of natural gas in the United States. The Company own interests in approximately 41,200 producing natural gas and oil wells that are producing approximately 2.3 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) per day, 92% of which is natural gas

Selection Criteria:
  • # 1 natural gas producer in America
  • Most of the NG production is hedged at higher NG prices than current market prices
  • No immediate debt maturity
  • When NG prices recover (and they would), stock prices of NG producers would recover.
  • Pure play on energy
  • NG is cleaner fuel and with Obama administration focus on energy policy, it would gain more prominence.
  • In long-run, this could be a potential acquisition play for major oil players like Exxon/BP/Chevron

  • Trade at a substantial discount to estimated NAV and closer to BV ($18)


So while this "Sept 2008 panic anniversary" is no reason to celebrate - look at this as "glass half full" since
it offered so many opportunities to invest in great companies at dirt-cheap prices.

Have a good labor day weekend !

/Shyam

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