It has been exactly 2 years since much hyped Blackstone IPO at $31 which marked the peak of credit bubble. I myself got carried away in the hype and in fact bought into blackstone IPO only to have significant losses - since then I have learned my lessons not to believe in hype.
So why am even writing and considering "private equity" companies again ? In last two years since BX IPO, much of the hype has been gone along with bubble time excesses. There are almost no private equity deals in last 12 months (as against at least one deal getting announced every Monday morning in 2006-2007). In a way this is good for PE industry so they can focus on their portfolio companies and make some real decisions to help them survive and thrive when economy recovers. The flood of redemption seen 6 months back have slowed down considerably and in fact there are new funds being raised (albeit smaller in size). Many of the PE companies have significant "dry-powder" (aka cash ready to invest) and hence should be able to take advantage of depressed valuations. This was evident from Fortress deal to buy debt of around $600 million on New-York real estate development project. When the economy returns to normal state of growth, these companies would recover their valuations and start paying decent dividends for yield of about 5-10% (at current stock prices)
Here are some of the picks:
- Blackstone (BX) at around $10
- American Capital (ACAS) at around $3
Here is my stock pick of week in private equity industry:
Company: Fortress Investment Group LLC
Symbol: FIG
Recommended buy price: $3 to $ 3.3
Target price in 12 months: $5
Background:
Fortress Investment Group LLC (Fortress) is a global alternative asset manager that raises, invests and manages private equity funds and hedge funds. Fortress earns management fees based on the size of its funds, incentive income based on the performance of the Company's funds, and investment income from its principal investments in those funds. Its offering of alternative investment products includes private equity funds and hedge funds. It has close to $26.5 B AUM
Selection criteria:
One of the pre-eminent PE group. With management fees of 1-2% for AUM, it has steady revenues of $500 M just from management fees. Recently it raised close to $200 M by issuing stock at $5 and many insiders bought during this offering. It is selling at discount of over 35% from its recent offering. Stock is down by nearly 90% from its peak of over $33 in 2007. It used to pay dividends of over 20 cents per quarter. Once company balance sheet improves and economy recovers, I am expecting it to start paying dividends in the range of 25-40 cents per year generating yield of at least 8% at current price. Finally it is "survival" theory. Since it has survived worst of credit cycle in last 9 months, it has excellent chances of surviving in whatever comes next and comes out ok.
Have a great Independence Day Weekend and good luck !
/Shyam
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