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Dow 8000 - what's next ?

Now that Dow has closed 8000 second time in 2 weeks and S&P is up by 27% from its low of early March, many questions are on every investors mind - What's next ? Is it going up or down ? Have we already seen the bottom or have we missed the rally ?

When DOW was below 7000, I mentioned that it does not matter where markets are headed as long as you are in the market for at least 12-24 months. In that time span, DOW would go below 7500 and above 9000. So it's up to your comfort level if you want to get out of market to possibly enter again when it goes below 7500 or stay in the market to catch the rally above 9000. Personally, I am in the market with time-span of 12-24 months. IMO, we are just getting started on next bull run - there would be lot of volatility along the way. But who said making money is easy:-)

Now stock of week section:

Symbol: ACAS
Company: American Capital
Buy price: $ 2 to $ 2.40
Target price in 12 months: $ 3 to $3.60 (for 50% return)
Company background:
American Capital is an equity firm and a global asset manager. The Company invests in private equity, private debt, private real estate investments, early and late-stage technology investments, special situation investments and alternative asset funds managed by American Capital and structured finance investments. It operates in two segments: investment portfolio and alternative asset management business.

Selection reasons: 
The stock is down by more than 90% in last 12 months on fear that it would not make it due to its covenant violations. It has also cancelled distributions for the quarter. I think ACAS has great portfolio of companies under its private equity umbrella (e.g. Mirion Technologies providing radiation monitoring systems and many more). So technically it may be in violation for its coverage ratio covenants, banks would not call it default (as long as ACAS keeps on paying interest) on fear that it would damage their own balance sheets. Another reason for my selection was that ACAS has publicly (see IR section of its website) said following - this amounts to nearly $1.20 per share:

American Capital will evaluate the declaration of its quarterly dividend after financial results are determined each quarter. American Capital intends to declare by June 15, 2009 and pay by September 30, 2009 $296MM of its 2008 remaining rollover taxable income in order to meet its RIC requirement and avoid any income tax liability.

IMO it's great (but very risky) bet on recovery of small private equity and credit market recovery. If this company survives, it would be a great investment for next 12-24 months.

(disclaimer: I do own ACAS common stock)

Good luck and have a good weekend!

/Shyam

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