With markets swinging up and down 8-9% with last week showing uptrend (for a change), many folks are wondering have we reached bottom ? It's almost like on a long tour, my kids asking - are we there yet:-)
In my opinion, I don't know and it does not matter if we reached bottom or not. Here are the reasons:
- No one knows when markets and economy would reach bottom. Many folks (including myself - I learned my lesson) called Nov 20 as bottom only proven to be horribly wrong.
- Majority of population is still working hard trying to reach end meets and improve their quality of life. With billions of people in developing countries want to join their counterparts in developed countries, they have high aspirations and would keep working hard
- Policies of governments are much better than seen during great depression and they would pull all stops to avoid another great depression at all costs
- China and India still expanding (though at lower rates) preventing complete meltdown of global economy
- Even though finance has created this crisis, its basic premise of efficient allocation of capital is still intact
- We are not going back to stone-age so unless you believe that DOW index is going to 4000, there is no need to find out exact bottom of markets. There is much higher chance of DOW reaching 9000 than it reaching 4000. So stop worrying when DOW crashes from 7500 to 6500 or even 6000. Consider this as great buying opportunity and invest (with caution)
Now coming to stock of week:
I think there are so many opportunities in my past recommendations (at much better prices), I would stay with my past recommendations and recommend investing in IDG, GE, XL and even HIG. Almost all of these still present great buying opportunities and are trading at lower than my recommended buy prices. So if you think these companies are going to survive this downturn, go ahead and invest carefully for long haul.
Have a good weekend!
/Shyam
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