Skip to main content

Rate Cut and London Plan - are these enough ?

As expected 6 major central banks including US Fed did a co-ordinated rate cut of 50 basis points. Since it was expected move, markets have already discounted this move. British came up with its own rescue plan with nearly trillion dollars in supports/guarentees of one form or other. I think overall it was good plan especially providing guarantee for interbank lending. Due to British rescue plan, RBS common and mainly preferred shares jumped while overall market was down. I think RBS preferred (RBS-M, RBS-P, RBS-L) do provide good value as long as bank does not get nationalized completely. They offer about 6-7% interest with face-value of $25. However since they are trading at 5-8 ranges, effective yield would be north of 20% as long as RBS does not cancel dividends. It would also provide an upside when values start climbing towards face-value in due time - again if RBS survives and in this market conditions, that's big IF.

However if regulators have learned anything from letting Lehman fail, it would be not big bank like RBS fail. The crisis exploded with Lehman failure since confidence in the system was lost and it would take months (if not years) to build up confidence in these big financial banks. We could see Dow going down below 9000 before any recovery starts.

Obama scored one more win by winning the debate yesterday. I think he was way better than McCain and some folks are calling this election to be over. There are 27 days left and lot can heppen in those 27 days but if Obama just keep on doing what he is doing and McCain keeps on making the mistakes/flip-flops/personal attacks he is making, Obama would be next USA president and that would be good for US and world economy

Have a good night!

/Shyam

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

The "i" factors are back again!

Happy Earth Day! In following Stotra, we remember Mother Earth every morning before touching feet to the ground. समुद्रवसने   देवि   पर्वतस्तनमण्डले   । विष्णुपत्नि   नमस्तुभ्यं   पादस्पर्शं   क्षमस्वमे   ॥ Samudra-Vasane Devi Parvata-Stana-Mannddale | Vissnnu-Patni Namas-Tubhyam Paada-Sparsham Kssamasva-Me || Meaning : 1:  (Oh Mother Earth) O  Devi , You Who have the  Ocean  as Your  Garments , and  Mountains  as Your  Bosom , 2:  O  Consort  of  Lord Vishnu ,  Salutations  to  You ; Please  Forgive my Touch  of the  Feet  (on Earth, which is Your Holy Body). (source: Green Message site) So let's make sure that we honor Earth every day and preserve her for millions of years..After all we have only ONE! It has been six weeks since I wrote about markets. During that time, markets reached all time highs (almost touching 5300) and down by 5% from those levels. W...