Skip to main content

Did markets bottomed out already ?

Finally Oscars are over and as expected "No Country For Old Men" won best picture and directing Oscars. I had not seen the movie yet - would see when it comes on DVD. Democratic elections are heading into final phase and I think Mar 4 would more or less decide who will be candidate. Obama has the momentum and would be very likely Democratic candidate and eventually President of USA.

Now that Ambac and MBIA is coming out of ratings penalty box, banks and markets can start their recovery. I predict that Dow 11500 on Jan 23 was bottom and Fed interest rate cuts, tax-rebates would help markets to start heading higher and by summer it would be near 13500.

So what are the plays here:
  1. Asyt: Looks liks its ex-CEO is working with PE to take it private at $6. So at current price of $4, it provides good play for 50% return
  2. Aruba: At $5 it is steal considering it is #2 play in wi-fi networks and was trading over $20 not long ago
  3. Solar stocks like SOLF, CSIQ: These stocks are down by nearly 50% from thei all time highs and with possible democratic president, oil at $100 and high growth rates provides pretty good entry point for long-term plays
  4. Emerging markets mutual funds (UUPIX, MCHFX, MINDX, TABRX): Excellent entry points for another 10-15% return by end of year
That's all for now
Good night and good luck

/Shyam

PS: I may have positions in some stocks/MFs mentioned on this blog

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...