Monday, February 25, 2008

Did markets bottomed out already ?

Finally Oscars are over and as expected "No Country For Old Men" won best picture and directing Oscars. I had not seen the movie yet - would see when it comes on DVD. Democratic elections are heading into final phase and I think Mar 4 would more or less decide who will be candidate. Obama has the momentum and would be very likely Democratic candidate and eventually President of USA.

Now that Ambac and MBIA is coming out of ratings penalty box, banks and markets can start their recovery. I predict that Dow 11500 on Jan 23 was bottom and Fed interest rate cuts, tax-rebates would help markets to start heading higher and by summer it would be near 13500.

So what are the plays here:
  1. Asyt: Looks liks its ex-CEO is working with PE to take it private at $6. So at current price of $4, it provides good play for 50% return
  2. Aruba: At $5 it is steal considering it is #2 play in wi-fi networks and was trading over $20 not long ago
  3. Solar stocks like SOLF, CSIQ: These stocks are down by nearly 50% from thei all time highs and with possible democratic president, oil at $100 and high growth rates provides pretty good entry point for long-term plays
  4. Emerging markets mutual funds (UUPIX, MCHFX, MINDX, TABRX): Excellent entry points for another 10-15% return by end of year
That's all for now
Good night and good luck

/Shyam

PS: I may have positions in some stocks/MFs mentioned on this blog

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