My first blog update of 2008 - happy new year to all of you readers!
I was watching the ups-and-downs of market for last two weeks and finally decided to write after I got convinced that we have seen the worst in stock market. Now that Dow is close to 10% down from its peak and Nasdaq is back below 2500, how worse can it get. There are some signs emerging which confirm my theory that we are very near (if not at absolute bottom) of the market.
As promised, here is update on model portfolio I constructed at start of 2007 which has returned 15.7% compared to S&p returns of about 5.39% nearly beating it by 10%. Most of the contributors to this decent performance was mutual funds focusing on emerging countries and oil-sector. It's no wonder that my two stock individual stock picks (Cisco and Yahoo) were worst performers - other than real estate mutual fund.
Now that market is near bottom, here is model portfolio for 2008 - my goal is to beat S&P by at least 2-3% by year end.
Overall distribution:
Portfolio:
As you can see, there is higher allocation to financials since I believe that financials are at same stage as what tech was in 2002 and after some consolidation will have a good 2nd half of 2008
Disclaimer: I may have position in some of the stocks and mutual funds mentioned in the writing
Good luck and good night !
/Shyam
I was watching the ups-and-downs of market for last two weeks and finally decided to write after I got convinced that we have seen the worst in stock market. Now that Dow is close to 10% down from its peak and Nasdaq is back below 2500, how worse can it get. There are some signs emerging which confirm my theory that we are very near (if not at absolute bottom) of the market.
As promised, here is update on model portfolio I constructed at start of 2007 which has returned 15.7% compared to S&p returns of about 5.39% nearly beating it by 10%. Most of the contributors to this decent performance was mutual funds focusing on emerging countries and oil-sector. It's no wonder that my two stock individual stock picks (Cisco and Yahoo) were worst performers - other than real estate mutual fund.
| Investment | Quantity | 1/5/2007 | 1/1/2008 | ||
| Rate | Amount | Amount | %Gain | ||
| UUPIX | 156 | 32.09 | $5,006 | $8,558 | 71.0% |
| FSESX | 80 | 62.69 | $5,015 | $8,333 | 66.2% |
| FXI | 47 | 105.94 | $4,979 | $8,011 | 60.9% |
| TABRX | 397 | 12.61 | $5,006 | $7,563 | 51.1% |
| VEIEX | 211 | 23.68 | $4,996 | $7,120 | 42.5% |
| VGTSX | 573 | 17.46 | $10,004 | $11,934 | 19.3% |
| VDMIX | 803 | 12.46 | $10,005 | $11,222 | 12.2% |
| VWEHX | 804 | 6.22 | $5,000 | $5,300 | 6.0% |
| VFINX | 77 | 129.87 | $10,000 | $10,407 | 4.1% |
| $$CASH | 1 | 5000.00 | $5,000 | $5,000 | 0.0% |
| VSTCX | 492 | 20.31 | $9,992 | $9,704 | -2.9% |
| CSCO | 527 | 28.48 | $15,010 | $14,266 | -5.0% |
| YHOO | 180 | 27.76 | $4,996 | $4,187 | -16.2% |
| VGSIX | 198 | 25.21 | $4,991 | $4,110 | -17.7% |
| Total ($): | $100,000 | $115,715 | |||
Now that market is near bottom, here is model portfolio for 2008 - my goal is to beat S&P by at least 2-3% by year end.
Overall distribution:
| Stocks | $25,000 |
| Domestic Equity | $32,500 |
| International Equity | $32,500 |
| Bonds | $10,000 |
| Total | $100,000 |
Portfolio:
| Investment | Name | Quantity | 1/14/2008 | |
| Rate | Amount | |||
| CSCO | Cisco Sytems | 190 | 26.29 | $5,000 |
| AMZN | Amazon | 60 | 82.87 | $5,000 |
| RDN | Radian | 532 | 9.40 | $5,000 |
| PAY | Verifone | 288 | 17.34 | $5,000 |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar | 231 | 21.67 | $5,000 |
| VEIEX | Vanguard Emerging | 229 | 32.73 | $7,500 |
| VGSIX | Vanguard Real Estate | 527 | 18.98 | $10,000 |
| VGTSX | Vanguard International | 646 | 19.36 | $12,500 |
| BKPIX | Profunds Ultrasector Banks | 299 | 25.07 | $7,500 |
| VFINX | Vanguard S&P 500 | 57 | 130.44 | $7,500 |
| UUPIX | Profunds Ultra Emerging | 184 | 40.75 | $7,500 |
| TABRX | Templeton BRIC | 270 | 18.51 | $5,000 |
| FSESX | Fidelity Select Energy Services | 75 | 99.81 | $7,500 |
| VWEHX | Vanguard High Yield Corporate | 1718 | 5.82 | $10,000 |
| Total ($): | $100,000 | |||
As you can see, there is higher allocation to financials since I believe that financials are at same stage as what tech was in 2002 and after some consolidation will have a good 2nd half of 2008
Disclaimer: I may have position in some of the stocks and mutual funds mentioned in the writing
Good luck and good night !
/Shyam
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