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Recommendations with potential of 50% return in 2008

As we are getting closer to enter into 2008, I started thinking about potential stock recommendations which could return 50% by end of 2008. Due to recent turmoil in financial markets, even after markets recovering in last 2 weeks (S&P is up by 7% in last two weeks), there are still quite a few stocks which would fit the bill. Here are my recommendations.

Disclaimer: I may have positions in some of these recommendations

US Stock Recommendations:
  1. VeriFone (PAY): This company's stock got penalized last week (down by 54%) due to accounting errors on how they accounted for inventory in first 3 quarters of 2007 even though they increased the revenue guidance. This company makes products which you come across almost everyday when you go shopping in malls or for groceries. They make devices which read your credit or ATM cards at the counter. This company is leader in that space. So fundamentally nothing has changed as far as business is considered. Credits cards are here to stay and shops are going to need these card readers. Markets have over-reacted to the news and provided with an excellent buying opportunity. Even with stock up by 9% on Friday 12/7, I would recommend this stock at 22 with price target of at least $ 33 by end of 2008
  2. Radian Group Inc (RDN): Radian Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries and affiliates, operates as a credit enhancement company that provides credit protection products and financial services to mortgage lenders and other financial institutions. One would be surprised by this recommendation considering turmoil in sub-prime market. However My analysis is based on a simple fact: Is this company going to make it - means not going to bankruptcy ? With Fed and Bush Government on its side, subprime issue may have shown its worst. In that case, RDN is going to survive. Not too long ago, RDN was a merger candidate with its bigger rival (MBIA). With this simple binary analysis of "No BK", RDN is worth the risk at $11.78 with target price of $18 by end of 2008
  3. With similar analysis as RDN, there are few general recommendations like Countrywide (CFC), Etrade (ETFC) and Circuit City (CC)
India Stock Recommendations:
  1. Hexaware: This company got into trouble due to one of its employees forex derivatives trading - lax controls. The issue wiped out all its 2007 earnings but fundamentally business has not changed. At Rs 82, it has potential of returning 50% with target price of Rs 125 by end of 2008
  2. India Foils: This is bet on continued commodity boom. Similar to Ispat Industries which jumped from 30 to 70 in matter of weeks, this stock could go from Rs 19 to over Rs 30 by end of 2008
  3. Other general recommendations at current prices are Mindtree at Rs 500, LML at Rs 16, Tata Tele at Rs 55 and RS Software at Rs 45
Good luck and good night !

/Shyam

Comments

Anonymous said…
Hi Shyam,

Came across your blog, great to find that you are an investment guru :-). I am a person who till now failed to find time to do anything useful with my money, now realising the mistake and trying to correct that - so I can hope to get some tips from you ;)

Gopa.
12:17 AM
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