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October 2007: What a month

Finally October month is over and as every year, this year was no different as far as market volatility is considered. Let's see how my macro predictions are doing:

  • India's BSE sensex crossed 20000 5-months before my target date
  • HangSeng crossed 30000
  • Fed reduced target interest rate to 4.5%
  • Dow almost reached 14000 before today's fall of more than 300 points
So most of the predictions are on target. So where do we go from here.

With credit markets still in turmoil, expect quite a bit of volatility for next few weeks. Almost all big banks are issuing warnings, taking big-baths, creating cookie-jars for future quarters and in the process cleaning up their books. This is good for economy and that's why I love US financial system. Companies/Banks are not kept on life-support as zombies the way other economies. For example, Japan kept their banking system on life-support for whole of 1990's which impacted overall economy and had multiple recessions.

I think with Fed support, good job market and consumer spending and global growth across emerging countries, US economy should be able to whether housing downturn and credit turmoil and would be able to skirt recession.

My last two recommendations on Indian companies had done extremely well.

  1. Reliance Petroleum already crossed 250 (almost touched 290) in less than 2 months
  2. Reliance Natural Gas crossed 130 in less than 2 months
I would still recommend Reliance Petroleum at around 200 when there is correction in India's market. Idea below 130 looks great for potential return of 50% in about 15 months (target price of 200 by Dec 31, 2008)

This week I had to travel to RTP for work and had to live thru United horror story of waiting for 7 hours at Chicago airport and then staying night in Chicago.

My recommendation: DON'T TRAVEL UNITED if you have alternatives available. It's good that I had good novel with me. I finished "The Kite Runner" by Khaled Hosseini. Excellent novel and since it is partly based in Bay Area, I could relate to most of the locations. I would definitely recommend this. Planning to read his another novel "A Thousand Splendid Suns" over the holidays

Have fun !

Comments

Anonymous said…
so how do you suggest we invest in the http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/21/the-10-best-places-to-invest.aspx countries. Pls respond.
12:42 PM
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