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May commentary

Last week I completd second year of my part-time MBA at UC Berkeley - I was so looking forward to summer break after hectic spring quarter. I took Financial Information Analysis, Brand Management and Risk Management courses. All were pretty good courses. Did a marketing plan on Ebay and got a chance to take a closer look at how Eddie Lambert made billions with his smart move on Kmart. Learned couple of excel tools like Crystal Ball and Solver in Risk management course. Overall it was a good learning quarter.

It was an interesting week for markets which are becoming little bit frothy even for an aggresive investor like me. It is definately climbing peaks every week but I almost feel that end of rally is coming anytime.

Here are my predictions for rest of year:

  • Now that SSE index has crossed 4000 (my earlier prediction was that it will reach 3500 by year-end), it reminds me of Nasdaq of 1999-2000 when it was crossing thousdand milestones in months. SSE index is almost reaching similar state. However the momentum is so strong that it may see past 4500 and even touch 5000 and then head for a major correction. Such a correction could bring back SSE index back to 3000-3500 range and impact markets around the world (the way it did in Feb 07) and could burn quite a few folks. My recommendation is to slowly divest holdings from emerging markets funds (while they are at their peaks) to money market funds and wait out summer for major correction. You will get chance to enter in this market at lower levels.
  • Comparatively BSE index has gone nowhere during 07 and looks relatively cheap. However during emerging markets correction, it could see 12000
  • Regarding European markets, they looks relatively safe considering mergers among big banks and other companies would keep the prices from falling significantly
  • Companies in commodities are hot with Alcoa making bid for Alcan. The consolidation in metals/steel is going to continue till there are about 4-5 strong players. No other major industry has such a fragmentation as metals industry
  • Indian Alpha Recommendation:
    • Hindalco Industries: After Hindalco annoced plans to acquire Canadian company Novelis, Hindalco stock has come down from about 200 to 145. With Alcoa's bid for Alcan, Hindalco's move looks pretty smart and it's just matter of time before market realizes. My prediction for Hindalco's stock to reach 200 by end of FY08 giving returns of about 40% in 18 months (with downside risk of less than 15%)
      (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/05/11/afx3711220.html)
/Shyam

Comments

R.S. SUNDARAM said…
Hi. Shyam. nice to c ur comments again. I think bcoz of ur busy schedule, u are not in a position to post your views in ur blog. Kindly try to come frequently.

Please advise on us Teledata in the present scenerio.

In your recent post, you have mentioned about ebay marketing. Though we get emails from various people, i am not in a position to join anywhere. In this respect also you can help us. Many of us not sure about all these online marketing companies. Thanks & regards. Sundaram
8:43 PM
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