Seeking Alpha by Adding Beta

Markets have been really looking for direction - one week up, one week down. 3 weeks back, DOW had a great week with over 500 points gain, then it was down again and up again last week. After having this roller-coaster ride, DOW is back to where it was at start of 2010. So that begs the question - where is market really headed ? Since I am history buff, I went back and checked recent history of DOW returns when economy was coming out of recession but not sure if recovery would be sustainable or not ? Here are two years which I found similarities with 2010: 1994: DOW start (3754) end (3834) Return: 2.13% 2004: DOW start (10409) end (10783) Return: 3.5 % - this is after it had a major run in 2003 With this brief history lesson, most likely DOW would return about 5% in 2010 and end year between 10700 to 11000. However in next 5 months there would be significant volatility as markets inch towards year end and await for election results. It's great to see closure on many key it...

Congratulations Spain for winning the Soccer World Cup first time and becoming 8th nation to join exclusive club of world cup winners. Congratulations Paul the Octopus for correctly predicting all results of all Germany matches and outcome of semi-finals and final. It's really amazing to see 100% record on predictions. In all, it was a great world cup and I enjoyed watching these matches with friends (even though India was not playing and US was out before quarter-finals). I was rooting for Spain for two reasons - they were really playing excellent and other reason is Spain as country needed this win to boost their confidence and along with it's confidence. Spanish economy which is 3rd biggest in Europe is important for European as well as World economy ! Now that world cup is over, I am looking forward to earnings season which should start from tomorrow with Alcoa announcing earnings on Monday after market close. Markets are at crucial juncture and looking for direction. It ...

Looks like Soccer world cup mania is building up to such extent that we have to look to Paul The Octopus to predict what would happen in these matches. Evidently Paul, a Octopus has till now correctly predicted results of 5 matches in which German y played (before the match:-). Now the real test would be next semi-final match between Spain and Germany. Who needs referees when you have Paul the Octopus - anyway, referees are not doing a very good job in this would cup ! It was disappointing to see both Brazil and Argentina crash out of Would Cup. But Germany was definitely a much better team on Saturday and deserved the big win ! It's good to see Spain win on Saturday just few minutes before match end. I hope Spaniards have celebrated which may help country's economy and prevent it from getting downgraded by Moody's. Last two weeks in particular and Q2 in general was very brutal who has invested in stock markets. Not only all gains of Q1 got wiped out but Q2 also took ma...