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Showing posts from November, 2010

QEII Announced: Now what ?

Much awaited QEII announced by Fed under which Fed is planning to buy $600 Billion worth of short-term treasuries. While this is definitely essential to support recovery and overall economic, immediate impact was sudden rise in 10-year treasury yield. These yields have jumped from low of 2.33% to 2.96%. That's HUGH jump within 2 weeks. I am not surprised with this rise. What I was surprised was sudden rise. Let's understand potential impact of QEII in next 6 months and how one can position to make investment gains: Possible impact of QEII: It should achieve its intended result which is to support economy. It should grow between 2 to 3% in Q4VY2010 and closer to 3% in first half of 2011 Unemployment should start inching downwards but not by too much. I still see it hovering between 8-9% for most of next year which is not good for US. But Fed can do only so much about it Housing prices should stabilize at current levels. May start to see rise of less than 1% in prices in

President Obama: Who would he emulate?

Now that most exciting week of 2010 is over with some expected results, it's time to take stock of what happened during the week. Mid-term elections are over with results on expected lines. Republicans won house in big way while democrats managed to keep senate majority by thin margin. It was definitely a big defeat for Obama as he himself put, it was "shellacking". This was not the first time President's party got big drubbing in mid-term elections in his first term and still went on winning second term. Let's look at each one of them in last few decades: Truman:   In the 1946 US Congressional election, the Republicans regained control of both the US Senate and US House of Representatives, as a result of President Truman failing to handle the vast post-war labor strikes. However Truman went on winning 2nd term in 1948 and democrats gained back control of house   Reagan:   The conservatives (whom Reagan backed) lost a substantial number of seats in Congress