Seeking Alpha by Adding Beta

As predicted exactly 2 months ago oil has reached $80 and DOW has crossed 10000. So what is next prediction over next 3 to 6 months ?Also as 2009 is coming to end, it is time to make some year end macro predictions and then identify if any investments worth considering at this point: So here are some macro predictions for next 3-6 months: Oil would continue to trade around $65 to $90 with more bias towards $90 due to upcoming world GDP growth prospects. I won't be surprised if oil crosses $90 at least once in 2009. Natural gas also doubled since it reached 7 and 1/2 year low of $2.50. NG could also cross $6 in next 3 months DOW would continue trading waters around 10000 and S&P around 1100. Once investors digest all Q3 results, they would be looking forward to how all important shopping season shapes up. Companies would have to start showing top-line revenue growth in Q42009 and Q12010. If Q4 also turns out to be as good as Q3, we could see DOW touching 11000 in next 6 months...

Finally the momentum with little bit boost from Intel and JP Morgan carried DOW above 10000 2 months ahead of my prediction. I am happy about it since many of my recommendations did pretty good. However it is also a sombre reminder that DOW crossed 10000 first time in 1999 - so for buy-n-hold believers, this is really a lost decade 1999 to 2009: 10 years 0% return on stocks So where are markets headed after reaching this milestone. Looking at positive earnings surprises, momentum would continue and may gather pace since lot of investors are still on side-lines and may be compelled to jump into market to catch remaining ride. For those who rode the markets all the way down and did not sell, must be feeling pretty good. My recommendation for those folks would be to take out some of the profits in this momentum ride. It is likely that DOW may touch 10500 before year's end and then start coming down. Looks like there is some similarity in my recommended picks and famous hedge fund mana...

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Obama won Peace Nobel Prize. My first reaction was "so soon" ? It has been just 9 months since he has become President and has not done anything significant when it comes to peace except changing the course of American foreign policy from "go it alone" to "engagement" and some olive branches to Iran, Korea and in general to Muslims . Looks like previous administration was so much dis-liked by world that any small change in policy seems to deserve Nobel Peace prize. In my opinion, this award is more for "hope of peace" than actual "achievement". This would put burden (for good) on Obama to: Finish the two wars America is fighting and get out of Iraq and Afghanistan Bring Iran and North Korea to discussions table and have meaningful dialogue about nuclear disarmament Finally reach Israel-Palestinian peace (which started in 1990s) and create two nations living side-by-side If he can achieve these in ...

As usual, market is having October blues. Last week was one of those weeks when investors were reminded that 6 month rally can stop and markets can in fact go down. Some of the macro readings like unemployment report, manufacturing activity in Sept are coming below expectations. This could be cause for concern as it can dent consumer confidence which is so critical for all important holiday shopping season. Q3 results would start coming in from next week. CIT is on brink of bankruptcy (I hope you folks did not follow my speculative recommendation of CIT-A - that was a bad call). So next couple of weeks, be careful and stay on sidelines. Once major companies like Alcoa, Intel etc announce results and give some guidance, at that time, one can take a look at which way markets are heading. Till that time, I would recommend staying in cash and sell "covered calls" for stocks which you hold to generate some extra return. Over next couple of weeks, I will be watching couple of insur...